单多普勒雷达反演涡旋风场方法分析     

常亚楠  戴建华  黄兴友  郑石 《气象科技》2019,47(5):719-730

由于单雷达在探测台风临近、登陆时仍具有双部或多部雷达难以具备的优势,目前利用单多普勒雷达反演涡旋风场的方法并不多见,本文对能够反演涡旋风场的3种方法NIVAP(自然坐标系的积分VAP方法)、EVAPTC(反演热带气旋的EVAP方法)、GBVTD(地基速度追踪法)进行了比较,分别从每种方法的假设条件和数学方法以及结果精度来比较3种方法对涡旋风场的适用性。利用中尺度气旋Rankine模式模拟了纯涡旋性气旋、只有环境风场时、环境风场和辐合(辐散)同时存在时的径向速度场及风场,比较了各种情况下的反演风场和模拟风场的相似系数。在对模拟风场比较之后,选取了2014年"威马逊"台风登陆前1h、登陆时及登陆后1h的3个实测雷达资料,对比分析了3种方法反演实测资料的风场特征,3种方法中EVAPTC方法最好,GBVTD方法在应用中有一定的限制,NIVAP方法较差。  相似文献   

江西省山地风场风速订正方法研究          下载免费PDF全文

吴琼  桂保玉  徐卫民 《气象与环境科学》2019,42(1):47-53

利用气象站、探空及NASA再分析资料,对江西省4县山地风场的12座测风塔风速进行订正研究。研究结果表明:测风塔与气象站风速数据相关性较低,相关系数一般远小于0.45;测风塔与探空资料的风速相关系数可达到0.6以上,最高可达到0.8;NASA再分析资料可以作为江西山地风场风速订正参证数据,其与测风塔风速数据相关性较高,相关系数可达到0.54～0.77,大多数测风塔相关系数可达0.7左右。海拔高度小于1000 m的测风塔与NASA 50 m风速的相关系数明显高于其与NASA 850 hPa风速的相关系数,高度为1000—1200 m的测风塔与NASA 50 m风速和与NASA 850 hPa风速的相关系数相差不明显,高度大于1200 m的测风塔与NASA 850 hPa风速的相关系数明显大于其与NASA 50 m风速的相关系数。比值法订正效果略好于线性回归法的,订正后的风功率密度总体偏大。  相似文献   

The Extra-Area Effect in 71 Cloud Seeding Operations during Winters of 2008–14 over Jiangxi Province,East China     

Weijian WANG  Zhanyu YAO  Jianping GUO  Chao TAN  Shuo JIA  Wenhui ZHAO  Pei ZHANG  Liangshu GAO 《Journal of Meteorological Research》2019,(3):528-539

Effects of weather modification operations on precipitation in target areas have been widely reported, but little is specifically known about the downwind (extra-area) effects in China. We estimated the extra-area effect of an operational winter (November-February) aircraft cloud-seeding project in northern Jiangxi Province in eastern China by using a revised historical target/control regression analysis method based on the precipitation data in winter. The results showed that the overall seasonal average rainfall at the downwind stations increased by 21.67%(p=0.0013). This enhancement effect was detected as far as 120 km away from the target area. Physical testing was used to compare the cloud characteristics before and after seeding on 29 November 2014. A posteriori analysis with respect to the characteristics of cloud units derived from operational weather radar data in Jiangxi was performed by tracking cloud units. Radar features in the target unit were enhanced relative to the control unit for more than two hours after the operational cloud seeding, which is indicative of the extra-area seeding effect. The findings could be used to help relieve water shortages in China.  相似文献   

东北多年冻土退化及环境效应研究现状与展望   总被引：6，自引：3，他引：3  

陈珊珊  臧淑英  孙丽 《冰川冻土》2018,40(2):298-306

东北多年冻土属中高纬度多年冻土,对气候变化非常敏感。数据模型模拟表明,21世纪东北多年冻土区气温会持续上升,显著的变暖将导致多年冻土退化。东北多年冻土呈现自南向北的区域性退化趋势,多年冻土区南部表现为南界的北移、融区的扩大和多年冻土的消失,而北部表现为多年冻土下限的上移、活动层厚度增大及地温升高等。多年冻土的退化会导致寒区生态环境的恶化,如兴安落叶松占绝对优势的天然林带锐减,林带北移,沼泽湿地萎缩等。随着多年冻土的迅速退缩和变薄,原多年冻土中蕴藏的碳将释放出来,对气候变化产生积极的正反馈,加速变暖,并影响全球碳循环。多年冻土退化导致其热状态失稳而造成寒区基础设施损坏,并且影响冻土微生物、碳循环、寒区生态和水文等,而它们是区域气候变化的重要因子,也将成为未来多年冻土研究的重点。而这些研究都需要长期的基础数据作支撑,因此需要进一步完善冻土参数监测网络,用模型厘清气候变化与多年冻土退化及其环境效应之间的关系。  相似文献   

定量评估我国西北干旱区土地利用变化对植被指数的影响     

姜雨青  李宝富  宋美帅  焦建飞  刘纹青 《冰川冻土》2018,40(3):616-624

在全球变化的背景下,定量区分人类活动和气候波动对干旱区植被的影响具有重要意义。采用多种统计学方法,分析了我国西北干旱区1990-2010年土地利用/覆被变化（LUCC）和1982-2010年归一化植被指数（NDVI）的时空变化特征,并定量评估了LUCC对NDVI变化的影响。结果表明：1990-2010年,西北干旱区耕地增加量最多,高达13 476 km²,其次是林地和水域,各地类增加的面积主要来自草地（12 590 km²）和未利用地（6 025 km²）。各土地类型变化速度快慢依次为：耕地 > 建设用地 > 水域 > 林地 > 草地 > 未利用地。2000-2010年,研究区土地利用程度综合指数（0.79）明显高于1990-2000年（0.23）,表明近年来人类活动对土地利用变化的影响程度显著增强。1982-2010年,西北干旱区NDVI呈增加态势,但近年来（2002-2010年）NDVI略有下降。其中,1990-2000年,LUCC对西北干旱区NDVI总变化的贡献率较低,仅为2.9%;而1990-2010,LUCC的贡献率为26.7%,表明气候变化对植被指数变化的贡献率高达73.3%。  相似文献   

Effect of Penetration Rates on the Piezocone Penetration Test in the Yellow River Delta Silt     

ZHANG Jiarui  MENG Qingsheng  ZHANG Yan  FENG Xiuli  WEI Guanli  SU Xiuting  LIU Tao 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2022,21(2):361-374

Partial drainage often occurs during piezocone penetration testing on Yellow River Delta silt because of its intermediate physical and mechanical properties between those of sand and clay.Yet,there is no accurate understanding for the range of penetra-tion rates to trigger the partial drainage of silt soils.In order to fully investigate cone penetration rate effects under partial drainage condi-tions,indoor 1 g penetration model tests and numerical simulations of cavity expansion at variable penetration rates were carried out on the Yellow River Delta silt.The boundary effect of the model tests and the variation of key parameters at the different cavity ex-pansion rates were analyzed.The 1 g penetration model test results and numerical simulations results consistently indicated that the penetration rate to trigger the partially drainage of typical silt varied at least three orders of magnitude.The numerical simulations also provide the reference values for the penetration resistance corresponding to zero dilation and zero viscosity at any given normalized penetration rate for silt in Yellow River Delta.These geotechnical properties can be used for the design of offshore platforms in Yel-low River Delta,and the understanding of cone penetration rate effects under the partially drained conditions would provide some technical support for geohazard evaluation of offshore platforms.  相似文献   

基于多源数据的湘北地区春季一次冰雹过程的观测分析          下载免费PDF全文

朱家亮  潘江萍  邱丽静  吕渊 《中低纬山地气象》2022,46(2):46-54

新型探测资料在强对流短临预报中发挥着重要作用.该文以2020年3月22日湘北地区春季一次冰雹过程为研究对象,运用多普勒天气雷达、风廓线雷达和地基微波辐射计等新型探测资料对该过程观测分析。结果表明：①此次过程发生在冷空气南下与南支槽前暖湿空气交汇背景下,受中低层切变线与急流影响,冰雹风暴生成前回暖明显,环境垂直风切变大;风暴由地面辐合线触发产生。②此次超级单体降雹过程在雷达回波中表现出“三体散射”、“V型缺口”、中气旋等特征;VIL、低仰角大风速核对冰雹、大风预警有很好的指示。③风廓线雷达探测到,风暴影响前超低空急流加强,中层有干侵入,低层垂直速度出现波动,风暴临近时超低空急流减弱。④地基微波辐射计监测发现,风暴影响前高空湿度增大,K指数、TT指数呈同趋势变化,而K指数预警灵敏度高于TT指数;风暴影响阶段,高空温度、相对湿度和大气不稳定指数出现不同程度跃升和突降。  相似文献   

大连地区阵风系数特征分析     

李昱茜  杨景泰  隋玉秀  邬晓冬  张黎红  孙立娟  王蕾  肖剑 《气象与环境学报》2022,38(5):98-105

利用2015年5月至2020年4月辽宁省大连地区9个国家气象站、2017年165个区域气象站逐10 min测风资料, 从风向、风级、月际变化、日变化、空间分布和天气影响系统等对大连地区最大、平均、最小阵风系数进行统计分析。结果表明: 1—12月平均阵风系数的变化范围为1.66~1.77, 秋末冬初平均阵风系数偏大, 春夏季节偏小; 与冷空气相对应风向的平均阵风系数大于与暖空气相对应的风向; 随着风级的增大, 最大、最小阵风系数向平均阵风系数收敛; 不同风级下阵风系数的频率分布均呈单峰型分布, 风级越大, 分布范围越窄。除西南风外, 其他风向的阵风系数均表现出白天大、夜间小的特点。大连地区阵风系数具有明显的地域特点, 东南和西北部沿海区域的阵风系数比内陆和西南沿海偏小, 风向基本不影响阵风系数的空间分布。大连的大风过程多受海上气旋和高压前部双系统共同影响, 气旋、台风以及雷暴大风的平均阵风系数大于同风级的平均值。  相似文献   

台风利奇马登陆期间的对流结构特征及对强降雨影响     

陈涛  董林  罗玲  杨舒楠 《气象》2021,47(12):1433-1443

2019年9号台风利奇马在浙江造成极端降水,其中8月9日白天浙江东部受台风外围螺旋雨带长时间影响,9日夜间在台风内核对流影响下降水有显著增强;降水中心与浙江临海地区的天台山、括苍山和雁荡山等地形特征密切相关。GPM（Global Precipitation Measure）卫星遥感反演表明近岸台风螺旋雨带以层积混合型降水为主,台风眼墙区域以热带暖云对流型降水为主;眼墙区雨滴有效直径更大、雨滴数密度更高,有利于形成高降水强度。台风登陆前移动速度较慢,浙江沿海地区维持低层锋生和辐合,有利于外围螺旋雨带降水维持和增强;登陆前后受环境垂直切变等因素影响,台风中心左前侧眼墙区域对流活跃,在登陆点附近强降水区偏向于台风中心左侧。分钟级降水观测表明台风登陆期间浙江近海山区降水强度2~3倍于平原地区,其中地形性降水增幅效应与台风对流非对称结构差异对降水影响程度基本相当,有利于在台风中心左前侧的括苍山—雁荡山山区形成强降水中心。  相似文献   

Understanding interlinkages between long-term trajectory of exposure and vulnerability,path dependency and cascading impacts of disasters in Saint-Martin (Caribbean)     

《Global Environmental Change》2021

This empirical and interdisciplinary study investigates the contribution of deeply enrooted social-political factors to the accumulation of exposure and vulnerability and amplification of cascading impacts of disasters, with implications on the creation and reinforcement of path dependency maintaining social-ecological systems on a maladaptive trajectory. Applying the Trajectory of Exposure and Vulnerability approach to Saint-Martin (Caribbean), we more specifically highlight how the causal chain linking historical geopolitical and political-institutional drivers to legal, economic, demographic, sociocultural, planning-related and environmental drivers, created the accumulation of exposure and vulnerability over time and contributed to the propagation and amplification of the impacts of tropical cyclones Irma and José in 2017. We find that historical social-political dynamics involving unsustainable development and settlement patterns, the weakness of local institutions, population mistrust in public authorities, high social inequalities and environmental degradation maintained Saint-Martin on a maladaptive trajectory through powerful reinforcing mechanisms operating both between and during cyclonic events. This study demonstrates that long-term interdisciplinary approaches are required for a better understanding of path dependency and the identification of levers to break it in risk-prone contexts. In Saint-Martin, breaking path dependency requires the alignment of local institutional capacities with national risk reduction policies, the promotion of social justice and involvement of local communities in decision making. This study therefore confirms the relevance of backward-looking approaches to support forward-looking climate adaptation.  相似文献